Americans learned through Donald Trump’s
Truth Social propaganda network this past weekend that we are at war with Iran.
That’s right. Both the president and his “Secretary of War” (that’s how they
like to dub the US Department of Defense) are referring to it as such. And in
doing so they are tacitly admitting to yet another overt violation of the
Constitution by this regime.
The fact is that the current autocratic American head of State has long since decided to dispense with the Constitution, the rule of law, international law, and the US justice system. Trump has also decided basically to do away with Congress, saying repeatedly that “he doesn’t need Congress.” Of course, if he weren’t acting as a de facto ruler, whether he thinks he needs Congress or not isn’t the issue, but rather that the Constitution dictates that he must work with Congress as a co-equal power. Shamefully, the skimpy GOP majority in the Senate and House are letting him get away with trampling the Constitution, their authority, and their duty to the American people.
And so, the GOP has become complicit by
omission (among other blatant constitutional violations), in permitting this
president to launch an unauthorized war, which is both domestically and
internationally illegal. A war which promises to have truly seismic
consequences both domestically and worldwide. It is—as much as any war launched
to date by Russia’s dictator, Vladimir Putin—a war of aggression that, among
other things, is as illegal as Putin’s Ukraine invasion, in terms of specific not
only US laws, but also international laws and the Charter of the UN, of which
the US is a founder, signatory and member of the Security Council.
These violations are made even more
flagrant by the fact that the US was involved in direct peace-related
negotiations with the Iranian theocracy when Trump’s regime launched the
surprise attack. Indeed, there was optimism last Friday from Oman Foreign
Minister Badr Albusaidi who had been tapped by Washington to mediate in US
talks with Iran. In Washington to meet with US Vice President JD Vance, Albusaidi
told the CBS News program Face the Nation that, "If the ultimate objective is to ensure
forever that Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb, I think we have cracked that
problem through these negotiations by agreeing (on) a very important
breakthrough that has never been achieved any time before. If we can capture
that and build on it, I think a deal is within our reach." He estimated
that a finalized accord could be reached within three months.
Clearly, then, the Trump regime duped
Iran—much in the same way that Putin had pretended to negotiate with Ukraine
while regrouping and planning a major new offensive—by lulling it into thinking
negotiations were advancing well, while never seriously entertaining a peaceful
solution. It should be recalled that these latest negotiations were just
reaching a semblance of the Iran Nuclear Accords finalized in 2015, after
intensive negotiations between Iran, the European Union and the Obama
administration. That pact was hailed as a major achievement that promised to
bring Iran back into the concert of nations. But during his first week in
office in 2016, Trump unilaterally pulled the US out of those accords in a move
that was a slap in the face not only to Iran but also to US allies in Europe.
As a result, that agreement collapsed.
The
US airstrikes were as much a surprise for Americans—including Congress—as for
the Iranians and the rest of the world, since in Trump’s State of the Union
address a week ago, Iran got barely a mention, while negotiations were continuing.
But on Saturday, just four days later, the first devastating air attacks were
launched. Now, more than a thousand people have already been killed in this war that Congress never authorized.
Perhaps the Americans most taken by surprise were the at least 500,000 (some estimates say as many as a million) US nationals who currently reside in the Middle East. They had no advanced warning whatsoever from the US government. There was no evacuation plan in place, and there still isn’t. Some 300,000 of those Americans reside in numerous countries currently under alert as a result of Trump and Netanyahu’s obviously unplanned and ill-prepared attack.
The US “strategy” for getting those US
citizens out of harm’s way became clear this week when Secretary of State Marco
Rubio issued an advisory through consular offices urging Americans in the
region to “get out now.” It was the kind of evacuation order issued for random
weather phenomena—except with a lot less advanced notice. Basically, no
advance warning. Nor was any suggestion made as to how hapless Americans at the
mercy of their own government were supposed to accomplish that task. Consular
advice to the stranded Americans is, basically, to get out however they can
because they’re on their own.
Indeed, in most of the area where
Americans reside, there is currently no air service, and the entire region
presents a huge hole in the sky if you observe the map of international air
routes. Advisories to maintain airspace closed are currently in effect for Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, the
occupied West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Those are all areas where
aviation advisories are warning operators not to fly until further notice due
to the risk from missiles, air defense systems and interception activity.
Current validity for the advisory runs
to March 6th, but could easily expand as military operations
develop. So this is the situation: Hundreds of thousands of Americans overseas have
merely been left stranded, and to their
own devices by the US government, as autocrats Trump and Netanyahu wage their
private war of convenience, with no knowledge of or concern for the probable
results, which appear bleak indeed. This has the potential to make the
much-maligned Afghanistan withdrawal—agreed to by Trump in his nefarious deal
with the Taliban and inherited by President Joe Biden on whom the GOP would
heap all the blame—look like a Saturday picnic in the park.
The ones who were quickest on their feet
and the most savvy travelers probably figured out that the only alternative
early on would be to head north any way they could and connect via Caucasia and
Afghanistan (an iffy choice at best), or
to head south and grab an air link through Egypt and Saudi Arabia. But
those routes are now under very heavy demand, and are also becoming vulnerable.
So all of that rhetoric about Trump
being the president who would “keep Americans safe”…well, not so much. And
whether anyone realizes it or not, the Trump regime just put all Americans
at greater risk at home and all around the world, as the potential for random
attacks by Islamist sleeper-cell and lone-wolf extremists just burgeoned
exponentially.
But these dire situations appear almost
minor compared to the mind-bogglingly major potential consequences to the world
order of this mindless and unauthorized act carried out by the Trump-Netanyahu “mutual
admiration society”. First, it should be noted that while Iran was indeed at
the center of the ever-ongoing power struggle among three Middle East
superpowers—the other two being Israel and Saudi Arabia—it posed no imminent
threat whatsoever to the United States.
Let me say that again. Despite Donald
Trump’s recent bloviating about Iran’s possessing intercontinental ballistic
missiles (ICBMs), and about how it was a minute away from having a nuclear
weapon, there is absolutely no credible intelligence to suggest that either of
these things was true. In fact, the “nuclear threat” argument flies in the face
of what Trump told the nation just last June when the US, at the behest of Bibi
Netanyahu, flew joint missions with Israel to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities
out of existence. It was Trump himself who assured Americans that, thanks to
that devastating bombing mission, Iran’s nuclear enrichment and development
capacity had been “totally obliterated.”
So does Trump now want us to believe
that, after a scant eight months, Iran’s nuclear team went from being “totally
obliterated” to getting back up and running and on the verge of boasting a
home-grown nuke? Really? If so, the US should, perhaps, hire them instead of
trying to bomb them out of existence because they would appear to be
world-class miracle-workers.
This was, without a doubt, at least
from the US point of view, a completely avoidable and, clearly, an inadvisable
move on the part of Washington. And, as Washington was in the midst of
negotiations with Iran—even if by its sham “diplomatic” team consisting of the
president’s son-in-law and his old real estate buddy, neither of whom have any
diplomatic credentials at all—Trump would also have been well-advised to tell
Israel to stand down.
Rubio appeared to confirm this theory,
though he later denied it, when he told reporters that Israel was on the verge
of attacking Iran and the Trump regime realized that, if that happened, Iran
would strike back at not only Israel but also at US military targets in the
region. As a result, Trump decided to preempt the Israeli attack, and that’s
why the US is now at war.
What? In other words, what he was saying
is that US foreign policy is a mere reaction to Israeli foreign policy? That is
to say, Bibi Netanyahu is dictating US military actions abroad? If that’s the
case, there is something very wrong with this picture.
But this isn’t just about that. This is also about both Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu trying by any means to stay out of court and out of prison. Trump, as usual, went off half-cocked and with no plan, no contingencies, and no regard for the consequences, simply because he needed yet another big diversion to take attention off of the bane on his regime—the Epstein files. It is not likely to be a coincidence that this military action—which has very real potential to spark a world war—comes just as revelations are emerging about a DOJ plot to cover up or completely destroy evidence of criminal behavior on Trump’s part linked to the Epstein Affair—including his alleged rape, assault and battery on a minor who was 14 at the time.
As Trump’s defense team leader Pamela
Bondi, who masquerades as attorney general, is coming under increasing pressure
to comply with the law, and release the millions of still missing files, and as
more and more obstruction allegations are accumulating against her, the president’s
plausible deniability is on ever shakier ground. Among files that have
seen the light of day, and which are being reported on by the independent
media, this was all predicted by an unlikely observer: Jeffrey Epstein. In
communications with far-right political idealogue Steve Bannon in December of
2018, Epstein held out the possibility that Trump would be fully capable of
starting a war with Iran if threatened with revelations about his dark past. Specifically,
Epstein speculated that if Trump felt cornered by political pressure, he would
trigger a larger conflict, such as bombing Iran, to create a crisis and rally
public support.
In separate exchanges with former
Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and attorney Reid Weingarten, Epstein
described Trump as “borderline insane.”
When Bannon seemed unconvinced that
Trump would go so far, Epstein wrote back saying, “You guys need to understand
that he is psychotic... if I go down, I'm taking everyone with me. Cornering a
rat, never a good idea”.
From Bibi Netanyahu’s standpoint, the
advantage is twofold. On the one hand, he was taking advantage of a passive
moment in Iran as the government continued to negotiate. Strategically, he saw
a chance to actively strengthen Israel’s position as a regional superpower
while dealing a devastating blow to Iran’s regional power.
On the other hand, for Netanyahu as for
Trump, this aggression and the initiation of a new conflict provides a great distraction
at a time when the war on Gaza is losing momentum and when he is increasingly
under pressure to negotiate an end to the hostilities. His personal vulnerability
is the ghost of corruption charges that are still pending against him in the
Israeli courts, in which he could end up not only losing his political power
but also his freedom. It is a win-win short-term move for Netanyahu, and he
very well knew that, given Trump’s situation, getting the US to go along was
likely to be an easy lift. Turns out, he was right.
Meanwhile, the enormous collateral
effects of this overnight initiation of a major conflict in the Middle East are
not easy to summarize or predict, and I will be writing a great deal more about
them as events develop. But here are some foreseeable consequences:
1. The
death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, marks a major geopolitical
rupture. It promises to cause upheaval not only in Iran but throughout the
Middle East. It will profoundly affect not only Iranian politics and
geopolitics but will bring seismic effects in energy markets, global trade,
shipping and Middle Eastern security as a whole, with the entire region
suddenly becoming a potential war zone.
2. Trump
and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are acting as if, with a few airstrikes, and
the targeted executions of some key players in the theocracy and military, the
US has freed the Iranian people from the cruel theocratic dictatorship that has
ruled them up to now. If that was the plan, they obviously know nothing about
Iran or that regime.
US Middle East military experts like retired General Mark Hertling and security experts like Brennan are making it clear that no regime change will take place unless there are American boots on the ground. And then, only after major and prolonged fighting. Regime change, in other words, cannot be effected from the air and will likely involve the US in another forever-war in the Middle East.
Beyond all of this, the sad news for common everyday Iranians taking Trump at his word and hoping that this is the end of their theocratic nightmare, is that Trump has said publicly that he will be employing “the Venezuela template” in Iran. This is, of course, a contradiction in terms, since Iran and Venezuela are radically different countries and cultures. But on hearing the false hope that Trump is extending to them, Iranians need to look at what he did in Venezuela. He blasted strategic targets in the capital city of Caracas, snatched President Maduro and his wife and spirited them back to the US. Then, he blithely returned power directly to Maduro’s regime, in exchange for oil, while ignoring the winners of prior elections that Maduro had voided. Venezuela remained, and still remains, a dictatorship ruled by the same harsh de facto regime that was in charge before US intervention, with Maduro’s vice president simply moving to the presidential office.
Venezuelans were duped and Iranians will be duped as well. If Trump can strike a largely commercial (oil) compromise with Khamenei’s son—by making him an offer he can’t refuse—the regime will remain in power, and the Iranian people will be worse off than ever before.
Had the US really cared about the people of Iran rising up and shaking off the chains of the Islamic theocracy, it would long ago have been backing anti-regime guerrilla movements in that country with intelligence-sharing, training, money, arms and military advisors. Because without that kind of backing, no regime overthrow would ever be possible. But the US learned long ago to be careful what you wish for, since, short of setting up a US-backed puppet regime—something which history tells us never works in the long-run—there is no way to know what sort of government would follow this one, or whether it would align itself with the US which has a long history of unpopularity in Iran.
3. Another
contingency is that prolonged fighting could lead to a much weakened Iran that
would slip into the sort of chaos some other Middle Eastern countries did
following the Arab Spring. In that case, a power vacuum could form and
government could become fragmented with the help of bad actors seeking to
destabilize the area. That is the sort of action that might well be backed by
far-right Israel, with Trump-backed Netanyahu taking advantage of a debilitated
Iran to continue to bolster Israel’s military dominance in the region—the
far-reaching consequences of which would be the further destabilization of the Middle
Eastern region as a whole.
4. A
fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Hormuz Strait—a narrow neck of
water that connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. A significant share
of liquefied natural gas (LNG) also moves through that strait. Iran, to a very
large extent, currently controls that passage, and has, in the past, also used
its Houthi allies in Yemen to aid it in that task. In the immediate term,
disruptions to shipping traffic in the Hormuz Strait will cause oil and
shipping, shipping insurance and container prices to spike. Experts indicate
that sustained disruptions could fuel worldwide inflation and spark a
corresponding worldwide recession, with the hardest-hit areas being Europe and
Asia, but also with development progress in Southeast Asia and Africa being
strangled.
5. At
least one expert in international law has described US worldwide actions under
the Trump regime as “the great unraveling” of international law. Through his complete
disregard for both international and domestic norms regarding the use of force,
and with regard to the sovereignty and self-determination of nations—principles
that have governed Western foreign policy since the end of World War II—Trump
has basically instituted piracy as his regime’s foreign policy. In a US policy
speech that Secretary Rubio made at a world security forum in Munich a few
weeks ago, he faced off against criticism of the unprovoked US attack on
Venezuela and on fishing boats in the Caribbean as actions unconstrained by law
and “necessary leadership” in a fractured world order. This was huge, in that
it signaled a US policy shift from the rules-based postwar order to one of
might-makes-right, in which the US is simply doing what it does because it can,
and because no one else can stop it.
Add to this a statement this week by the DOJ’s Hegseth, in which he said that
the US would be applying “no stupid rules of engagement” in its unauthorized
war on Iran, and America has just joined the Nazis in applying the same sort of
Hitlerian policies that Germany pursued during World War II.
In other words, the Trump regime is bent on turning back the clock to a world
where the most powerful regimes make up the rules as they go along and the rest
of the nations are rendered vassal states.
Donald Trump was supposed to be “the
president of peace”. At least that’s what he told us when he was trying to make
Democrats out to be warmongers. But then again, if there is one thing that is
consistent about Trump, it is his complete disconnection with truth and
sincerity. Sometimes, it is hard not to see his attacks on Venezuela and Iran,
his threats against Mexico, Canada and Greenland, and his verbal and economic
aggression against our Western allies as anything but retribution against the world
for not recognizing him as “a man of peace.” We know that, from his first day
in office in 2016, he coveted every one of his predecessor Barack Obama’s
virtues. What he couldn’t destroy with the stroke of a pen, he wanted to
garner, without ever doing the hard work of earning the honors bestowed on
others who did.
Don’t tell me I’m exaggerating. I saw
with my own eyes, as did you, when he made a big deal out of accepting a
made-up consolation “peace prize” created as a bespoke ego stroke by the FIFA
world soccer entity. And when he whined about not getting this year’s Nobel
Peace Prize, for all the made-up wars he’d “solved”, until winner, Venezuelan
opposition political activist María Machado, offered him her medal to shut him
up—and he became an even greater embarrassment than usual to the people of the
United States by actually accepting it. And then, after his illegal invasion of
her country, had the audacity to back the very regime that had repressed, cheated
and jailed Machado.
Could Donald Trump be that shallow and
vindictive, you ask? Short answer: Yes. Definitely. The man has all the depth
of a pancake griddle and the moral character of a wharf rat.
Many of the often salt-of-the-earth type people who bought Trump’s false promises and barefaced lies, and voted for him (twice), are the very same people whose families produce the military personnel who actually fight America’s wars. These relatives of military members voted for Trump in part because he promised to keep their sons and daughters, and brothers and sisters out of harm’s way.
It didn’t seem to matter to them that he
had called America’s heroes “suckers and losers” or that Trump—a five-time
draft-dodger from the Vietnam conscription era—had stood on the hallowed ground
of Arlington Cemetery and asked, “What was in it for them? ” They simply bought
his vow to be “the president of peace”, to bring the troops home, and end America’s
forever-wars on Day One. They believed that he would use America’s Armed Forces
for the purpose for which they were meant: to ensure US defense, not to go off
to foreign lands to start forever-wars of aggression. They too have been duped.
In this latest action in Iran, after
news of the first fatal American casualties was released, Trump confirmed that US
service members have already died and that more will likely die or become
casualties in the future, but added, “that’s what happens in war.” He said it
as if he’d had nothing to do with it, when he had, in fact, personally and
without Congressional authorization, lit the fuse for another forever-war that
was completely avoidable. And in doing so, had painted targets on the backs of
every US service member currently deployed in the Middle East. His Defense
Secretary Pete Hegseth shrugged the casualties off with yet another cliché,
saying, “War is hell.”
“That’s what happens in war.” The
subliminal message to MAGA supporters who voted for the “president of peace”? Soldiers
get killed in wars. That’s a fact. Get over it.


























